a blog about statistics, probability and logic of science
Friday, October 28, 2016
28 October, USA general election situation
These are the updated probability obtained running the Python code that computes the Bayesian posterior distribution over the electoral votes using near-ignorance priors. The worst and best case distribution for Clinton are in red and respectively, blue..
Winning probability above 0.99 (for both worst and best scenario).
Electoral votes between 322 and 335 (mean of the worst and best distribution)