General Poll for US Presidential Election 2016

We continue our adventure in the Bayesian USA 2016 election forecast through near-ignorance priors.

I will today show how to compute the lower and upepr probabilities for Clinton of winning the general election 2016. First, we load the lower and upper probabilities for Clinton of winning in every single State (see http://idpstat.blogspot.ch/2016/08/bayesian-winning-lower-and-upper.html) as well as the Electoral Vore for each state

In [12]:

import pandas as pd
lowerupper     = pd.read_csv('LowerUpper.csv')
electoralvotes = pd.read_csv('electoralvotes.csv')

In [40]:

lowerupper

Out[40]:

	Unnamed: 0	LowerProbability	UpperProbability
0	0	0.0026	0.0076
1	1	0.0155	0.0314
2	2	0.0367	0.0762
3	3	0.0690	0.1759
4	4	1.0000	1.0000
5	5	0.9034	0.9500
6	6	0.9937	0.9980
7	7	0.9950	0.9988
8	8	0.9850	0.9949
9	9	0.9459	0.9689
10	10	0.1747	0.2734
11	11	1.0000	1.0000
12	12	0.0013	0.0170
13	13	1.0000	1.0000
14	14	0.0003	0.0019
15	15	0.4979	0.6543
16	16	0.0098	0.0339
17	17	0.1462	0.2677
18	18	0.0081	0.0232
19	19	0.9931	0.9966
20	20	1.0000	1.0000
21	21	1.0000	1.0000
22	22	0.9549	0.9755
23	23	0.9774	0.9924
24	24	0.0006	0.0012
25	25	0.3789	0.5690
26	26	0.1162	0.3647
27	27	0.1013	0.2727
28	28	0.5729	0.7442
29	29	0.8637	0.9293
30	30	0.9999	1.0000
31	31	0.9890	0.9962
32	32	1.0000	1.0000
33	33	0.5132	0.6745
34	34	0.0003	0.0009
35	35	0.9250	0.9622
36	36	0.0000	0.0000
37	37	0.8899	0.9510
38	38	0.6900	0.8112
39	39	1.0000	1.0000
40	40	0.1803	0.3053
41	41	0.0448	0.0985
42	42	0.0079	0.0252
43	43	0.0000	0.0008
44	44	0.0001	0.0003
45	45	1.0000	1.0000
46	46	0.9994	0.9998
47	47	0.9996	1.0000
48	48	0.0712	0.2090
49	49	0.8702	0.9318
50	50	0.0000	0.0000

In [41]:

electoralvotes

Out[41]:

	Index	State	Vote
0	1	Alabama	9
1	2	Alaska	3
2	3	Arizona	11
3	4	Arkansas	6
4	5	California	55
5	6	Colorado	9
6	7	Connecticut	7
7	8	Delaware	3
8	9	D.C.	3
9	10	Florida	29
10	11	Georgia	16
11	12	Hawaii	4
12	13	Idaho	4
13	14	Illinois	20
14	15	Indiana	11
15	16	Iowa	6
16	17	Kansas	6
17	18	Kentucky	8
18	19	Louisiana	8
19	20	Maine	4
20	21	Maryland	10
21	22	Massachusetts	11
22	23	Michigan	16
23	24	Minnesota	10
24	25	Mississippi	6
25	26	Missouri	10
26	27	Montana	3
27	28	Nebraska	5
28	29	Nevada	6
29	30	Hampshire	4
30	31	Jersey	14
31	32	Mexico	5
32	33	York	29
33	34	Carolina	15
34	35	Dakota	3
35	36	Ohio	18
36	37	Oklahoma	7
37	38	Oregon	7
38	39	Pennsylvania	20
39	40	Island	4
40	41	Carolina	9
41	42	Dakota	3
42	43	Tennessee	11
43	44	Texas	38
44	45	Utah	6
45	46	Vermont	3
46	47	Virginia	13
47	48	Washington	12
48	49	Virginia	5
49	50	Wisconsin	10
50	51	Wyoming	3

We compute two histograms: one relative to the lower probability and the other relative to the upper probability. To obtain the histogram of the lower: for each State, we generate a random number r in [0,1] and we assign the electoral vote of the State to Clinton if $r \leq LowerProbability$ in the State or to Trump otherwise. (same for the upper). We also compute the lower and upper probability that the total electoral votes for Clinton exceeds the break-even line (that is equal to 269)

In [34]:

import numpy as np
#break-even line
evenline=269
#monte Carlo samples
Np=10000

lowvotes=0
upvotes=0
LowElec=np.zeros(Np)
UpElec=np.zeros(Np)
for i in range(0,Np):
    lowElec=0
    upElec=0
    for s in range(0,51):
        if np.random.rand(1)<lowerupper['LowerProbability'][s]:
            lowElec=lowElec+electoralvotes['Vote'][s]
        if np.random.rand(1)<lowerupper['UpperProbability'][s]:
            upElec=upElec+electoralvotes['Vote'][s]
    LowElec[i]=lowElec
    UpElec[i]=upElec
    if lowElec>evenline:
        lowvotes=lowvotes+1
    if upElec>evenline:
        upvotes=upvotes+1
    
upvotes=upvotes/Np
lowvotes=lowvotes/Np
print('['+str(lowvotes) +',' +str(upvotes)+']')

[0.9981,0.9999]

In [44]:

import warnings
warnings.filterwarnings('ignore')
%matplotlib inline

import seaborn as sns
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

sns.distplot(LowElec, axlabel="Electoral Votes (even-line in green)", 
                 kde=True, hist=True,color='darkred',label=str(lowvotes)) 
go=sns.distplot(UpElec, 
                 kde=True, hist=True,color='darkblue',label=str(upvotes)) 
go.set_title('Lower (red) and Upper (blue) distirbution for Clinton')
go.legend()
plt.axvline(x=270.,color='g')

Out[44]:

<matplotlib.lines.Line2D at 0x7f1513db14a8>

In [ ]: